Thursday, February 09, 2006
A RAY OF HOPE - I HOPE
Dave Lister may be crazy.
Crazy like a fox.
He's not one of "the usual suspects" who run for elective office in the CoP.
He possesses common sense.
He doesn't owe anybody anything (in terms of political favors - read: unions, activists, etc.).
He actually has a successful PRIVATE SECTOR BUSINESS! He's never worked for a government entity!
He doesn't qualify for PERS.
All this and he's running for City Council (Erik Sten's position)?
What is he thinking?
Read about it here.
He may be a long shot. I don't know. I'm not tapped into that stuff much yet.
His biggest asset, not intended as an insult, (for people who don't know anything else about him yet) is that he's NOT ERIK STEN!
That's a freebie.
However, strategically, this could get interesting.
Another challenger with "name recognition" is State Senator Ginny Burdick. You may know her for the one song she sings loudest - gun control. Although she has not yet officially entered the race, it's just a matter of when she files.
Possibly ideologically conflicted by her new position at PR firm Gard and Gerber, she has decided not to try to qualify for to "free money" - oops, that's "clean money" - oops, that's YOUR MONEY to finance her campaign.
Erik "the money pit" Sten, on the other hand, has announced that he will, indeed, partake of that pot o'gold, thank you very much. If he survives the "primary", his association with the VOE plan will remain. A referral of this measure will have been on the May ballot with all the pro/con arguments aired in gory detail. Who knows which way that will play? If those opposed to VOE prevail, and Lister's still in it, it's all good for him.
A certain number of people who would otherwise support Sten are feeling more than a little miffed at being bypassed by the council (Sten, in particular) in their implementation of the "Voter Owned Elections" (VOE) plan - the "voters" didn't get to vote on it.
Those folks, and more than a few others who "matter" in this town, while perhaps not ideological fellow travelers with Lister, seem to know and respect him and may vote for him out of that respect and/or to express their pique. The latter motivation is petty, but useful for Lister.
Sten will have to spend a good deal of his (excuse me, your) campaign funds on an attempt to secure a majority in the "primary", hoping to avoid a runoff. Crass and calculating as it sounds, that's a perfect scenario for Lister. His entry will further dilute the vote so that the likelihood of either of the others getting 50% or more is practically nil.
If Lister can get into the runoff, he's got some advantages over either of the others
Sten carries a ton of baggage and, with all the talk of city income taxes in the air, will be under increased scrutiny from fiscally conscious folks as a known waster of the public's money, especially since he's going the VOE route.
Burdick will be saddled with some unavoidable and exploitable issues. Primary among them is her long association with political insiders and their cronies in city and state government. Prior to her legislative current legislative gig, to which she was first elected in 1996, she was, from 1987 to 1993, a member and officer of the LCDC - not a favorite of supporters of measure 37. Another plus, (NOT) she was appointed to her position by Neil Goldschmidt. She has served on the board of NARAL and The Nature Conservancy. She also serves on the City of Portland Fire and Police Disability and Pension Fund board. Being a politician, she has a record, she's got ratings, Her 2000 campaign contribution list is here. Some other interesting facts are here and here and here.
She's now Senior Counsel/Public Affairs at Gard and Gerber. Being a lawyer for a large ad/PR agency just ain't what it used to be in these times of generalized mistrust of both lawyers and spin factories. In fact, some would consider it a double whammy. G&G's recent clients include ODOT, OHSU & other popular state agencies - again, her ties to government are inescapable. Here's how much she loves the establishment (all good reads, but check out the "Movin on up" post).
She's a wealthy, West Hills "good old girl".
Add in the fact that she and Sten will have to split the union vote and you never know.
From the personality standpoint, I don't know much about Lister or Burdick. From the little I've heard and read from Lister, it seems that he has a good grasp on what most people consider the important issues and his positions on those issues shouldn't scare anyone but the crazies away. It's likely that the smart play against either of the others would be to stay calm and avuncular (I hope that's the right word).
If he comes through the runoff, whichever of the other "usual suspects" has survived will be feeling the pressure (lack of money, if it's Sten) and may become shrill. Avoiding shrill is key.
I think.
It should play to Lister's strengths.
I hope. ¶ 4:19 PM
Dave Lister may be crazy.
Crazy like a fox.
He's not one of "the usual suspects" who run for elective office in the CoP.
He possesses common sense.
He doesn't owe anybody anything (in terms of political favors - read: unions, activists, etc.).
He actually has a successful PRIVATE SECTOR BUSINESS! He's never worked for a government entity!
He doesn't qualify for PERS.
All this and he's running for City Council (Erik Sten's position)?
What is he thinking?
Read about it here.
He may be a long shot. I don't know. I'm not tapped into that stuff much yet.
His biggest asset, not intended as an insult, (for people who don't know anything else about him yet) is that he's NOT ERIK STEN!
That's a freebie.
However, strategically, this could get interesting.
Another challenger with "name recognition" is State Senator Ginny Burdick. You may know her for the one song she sings loudest - gun control. Although she has not yet officially entered the race, it's just a matter of when she files.
Possibly ideologically conflicted by her new position at PR firm Gard and Gerber, she has decided not to try to qualify for to "free money" - oops, that's "clean money" - oops, that's YOUR MONEY to finance her campaign.
Erik "the money pit" Sten, on the other hand, has announced that he will, indeed, partake of that pot o'gold, thank you very much. If he survives the "primary", his association with the VOE plan will remain. A referral of this measure will have been on the May ballot with all the pro/con arguments aired in gory detail. Who knows which way that will play? If those opposed to VOE prevail, and Lister's still in it, it's all good for him.
A certain number of people who would otherwise support Sten are feeling more than a little miffed at being bypassed by the council (Sten, in particular) in their implementation of the "Voter Owned Elections" (VOE) plan - the "voters" didn't get to vote on it.
Those folks, and more than a few others who "matter" in this town, while perhaps not ideological fellow travelers with Lister, seem to know and respect him and may vote for him out of that respect and/or to express their pique. The latter motivation is petty, but useful for Lister.
Sten will have to spend a good deal of his (excuse me, your) campaign funds on an attempt to secure a majority in the "primary", hoping to avoid a runoff. Crass and calculating as it sounds, that's a perfect scenario for Lister. His entry will further dilute the vote so that the likelihood of either of the others getting 50% or more is practically nil.
If Lister can get into the runoff, he's got some advantages over either of the others
Sten carries a ton of baggage and, with all the talk of city income taxes in the air, will be under increased scrutiny from fiscally conscious folks as a known waster of the public's money, especially since he's going the VOE route.
Burdick will be saddled with some unavoidable and exploitable issues. Primary among them is her long association with political insiders and their cronies in city and state government. Prior to her legislative current legislative gig, to which she was first elected in 1996, she was, from 1987 to 1993, a member and officer of the LCDC - not a favorite of supporters of measure 37. Another plus, (NOT) she was appointed to her position by Neil Goldschmidt. She has served on the board of NARAL and The Nature Conservancy. She also serves on the City of Portland Fire and Police Disability and Pension Fund board. Being a politician, she has a record, she's got ratings, Her 2000 campaign contribution list is here. Some other interesting facts are here and here and here.
She's now Senior Counsel/Public Affairs at Gard and Gerber. Being a lawyer for a large ad/PR agency just ain't what it used to be in these times of generalized mistrust of both lawyers and spin factories. In fact, some would consider it a double whammy. G&G's recent clients include ODOT, OHSU & other popular state agencies - again, her ties to government are inescapable. Here's how much she loves the establishment (all good reads, but check out the "Movin on up" post).
She's a wealthy, West Hills "good old girl".
Add in the fact that she and Sten will have to split the union vote and you never know.
From the personality standpoint, I don't know much about Lister or Burdick. From the little I've heard and read from Lister, it seems that he has a good grasp on what most people consider the important issues and his positions on those issues shouldn't scare anyone but the crazies away. It's likely that the smart play against either of the others would be to stay calm and avuncular (I hope that's the right word).
If he comes through the runoff, whichever of the other "usual suspects" has survived will be feeling the pressure (lack of money, if it's Sten) and may become shrill. Avoiding shrill is key.
I think.
It should play to Lister's strengths.
I hope. ¶ 4:19 PM
